David Rosenberg is currently Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, one of Canada’s pre-eminent wealth management firms. Mr. Rosenberg was Chief North American Economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, a Senior Economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia.
- In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call
- Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture
- The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom
- Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast
- No two cycles are ever the same
- Never hide behind your model
- Always seek out corroborating evidence
- Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run
- Have respect for what the markets are telling you
- Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often
- Highlight the risks to your forecasts
- Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself
- Expansions are more fun than recessions